Oscar Recap

I should have done this on Monday, but I'm doing it now because laziness is too tempting sometimes.

Anyway, I got 22/24. The decisions were incredibly easy to predict this year, and that was a good thing this year because the vast majority (off the top of my head all of the decisions I can have opinions on) went to deserving recipients (mostly Gravity).

I missed Documentary Feature, which I figured would go to The Act of Killing, which had most of the critics awards and stuff, but instead it went to 20 Feet from Stardom about showbusiness, so obviously showbusiness people voted for it. It's evidently feel-good, etc. I will NEVER see the latter, but I'm planning on watching the former in a week or two.

The only other category I missed was Live Action Short, which I assumed would go to the 12 minute film The Voorman Problem, which I saw shortly after the ceremony. I figured people would just vote for Martin Freeman, Tom Hollander, and the English language (over Spanish, French, Finnish, and Danish), but they went for dying children (the Danish) instead of "god" prisoners.

Also, I thought Ellen was terrific. She was quite funny, and I will never complain about a host being funny and not being controversial.

Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are just around the corner, as in tonight, so here are my predictions, without category run-downs or explanations.

Best Picture:
Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Captain Phillips
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. Gravity
5. Her
6. Nebraska
7. Philomena
8. 12 Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Spoiler: Gravity

Spoiler 2: American Hustle

Dark Horse: The Wolf of Wall Street

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Hopefully Will NOT Win If Justice Exists: American Hustle

Best Director:

Nominees:

1. Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
4. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
5. David O. Russell for American Hustle

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Spoiler: Steve McQueen

Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actor:

Nominees:

1. Christian Bale in American Hustle
2. Bruce Dern in Nebraska
3. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
5. Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio

Dark Horse: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Should Win: Matthew McConaughey

One the "Will Win" matters because McConaughey has had this in the bag since the movie hit the screen.

Best Actress:

Nominees:

1. Amy Adams in American Hustle
2. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
3. Sandra Bullock in Gravity
4. Judi Dench in Philomena
5. Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Spoiler: Judi Dench (old British people, mainly)

Dark Horse: Amy Adams

Should Win: Sandra Bullock (Brie Larson)

All that said, Blanchett's BAFTA win over Dench all but gives her the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor:

Nominees:

1. Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
2. Bradley Cooper in American Hustle
3. Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
4. Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Jared Leto

Spoiler: Michael Fassbender

Dark Horse: Barkhad Abdi (when you win BAFTA, you shouldn't be underestimated)

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

Leto's had this one in the bag almost as long as McConaughey.

Best Supporting Actress:

Nominees:

1. Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine
2. Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
3. Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave
4. Julia Roberts in August: Osage County
5. June Squibb in Nebraska

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o

Spoiler (MAJOR): Jennifer Lawrence (this isn't a Forrest Gump-type Oscar-baity performance (it's Oscar-baity in a different, worse way) and she's not Tracy or Hepburn, but she has almost equivalent awards traction)

Dark Horse: June Squibb

Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o (Sarah Paulson in the same movie)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Nominees:

1. Before Midnight
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Spoiler: The Wolf of Wall Street

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips

Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Screenplay:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Blue Jasmine
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. Her
5. Nebraska

Will Win: Her

Spoiler (MAJOR): American Hustle

Dark Horse: Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen is always a threat)

Should Win: Her

American Hustle has more overall traction, but Her seems to have been coming on strong lately.

Best Animated Feature:

Nominees:

1. The Croods
2. Despicable Me 2
3. Ernest and Celestine
4. Frozen
5. The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen

Spoiler: The Wind Rises (Miyazaki may get a 2nd award for his final project)

Dark Horse: Despicable Me 2

Should Win: Frozen (I'll admit to not having seen The Wind Rises, the only legitimate challenger.)

Best Foreign Language Film:

Nominees:

1. The Broken Circle Breakdown (from Belgium, in Dutch)
2. The Great Beauty (from Italy, in Italian)
3. The Hunt (from Denmark, in Danish)
4. The Missing Picture (from Cambodia, in French)
5. Omar (from Palestine, in Arabic)

Will Win: The Great Beauty

Spoiler: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Dark Horse: The Hunt

Best Documentary Feature:

Nominees:

1. The Act of Killing
2. Cutie and the Boxer
3. Dirty Wars
4. The Square
5. 20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: The Act of Killing

Spoiler: 20 Feet from Stardom

Dark Horse: The Square

Dark Horse 2: Dirty Wars

Best Production Design:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Gravity
3. The Great Gatsby
4. Her
5. 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Spoiler: Gravity

Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Her (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)

Best Cinematography:

Nominees:

1. The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
2. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
4. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
5. Prisoners (Roger Deakins)

Will Win: Gravity:

Spoiler: Inside Llewyn Davis

Dark Horse: Nebraska

Dark Horse 2: Prisoners

Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis (or 12 Years a Slave, I can't decide)

Best Costume Design:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. The Grandmaster
3. The Great Gatsby
4. The Invisible Woman
5. 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Spoiler: 12 Years a Slave

Dark Horse: The Invisible Woman

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave or The Invisible Woman

Best (Film) Editing:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, and Alan Baumgarten)
2. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
3. Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy and Martin pensa)
4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger)
5. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Captain Phillips

Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Gravity (or The Wolf of Wall Street, I can't decide)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominees:

1. Dallas Buyers Club
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
3. The Lone Ranger

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club (BP nominee has never lost, if I'm not mistaken)

Spoiler: Bad Grandpa

Dark Horse: The Lone Ranger

Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Original Score:

Nominees:

1. The Book Thief (John Williams)
2. Gravity (Steven Price)
3. Her (William Butler and Owen Pallett (essentially Arcade Fire))
4. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Her

Dark Horse: Saving Mr. Banks

Should Win: Saving Mr. Banks

Note: For me, Gravity's score's issue is that it fails to show much beyond some incredibly effective suspense music. The movie doesn't really provide many opportunities for nuanced, lower key (or even simply hopeful) work. Arcade Fire's score for Her is too low key for me, and though it works perfectly with every frame of the film, it's simply not ear-catching. Thomas Newman's for Saving Mr. Banks is basically an agglomeration of his best ideas from past films tailor-made to fit a new one. I think he's the best living film composer, so maybe I'm biased, but this trumps his great work for Skyfall, American Beauty, Finding Nemo, and possibly even WALL-E, though it obviously fails to touch Shawshank Redemption.

Best Original Song:

Nominees:

1. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 (composed, written, and performed by Pharrell Williams)
2. "Let It Go" from Frozen (composed and written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, performed by Idina Menzel)
3. "The Moon Song" from Her (composed by Karen Orzolek (Karen O), written by Orzolek and Spike Jonze, and performed by Karen O)
4. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (composed by Paul Hewson (Bono), David Evans (The Edge), Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, Jr. (U2); written by Hewson; and performed by U2)

Will Win: "Let It Go"

Spoiler: "Ordinary Love"

Dark Horse: "The Moon Song"

Should Win: "Let It Go"

Easiest choice ever. With U2 getting the Golden Globe, Frozen's win is all but assured (the Globes and Oscars almost never agree in this category)

Best Sound Editing:

Nominees:

1. All Is Lost
2. Captain Phillips
3. Gravity
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Lone Survivor

Best Sound Mixing:

Nominees:

1. Captain Phillips
2. Gravity
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Lone Survivor

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Inside Llewyn Davis

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips

Should Win: Gravity or Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:

1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Iron Man 3
4. The Lone Ranger
5. Star Trek Into Darkness

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Dark Horse: Star Trek Into Darkness

Should Win: Gravity

Best Animated Short:

Nominees:

1. Feral
2. Get a Horse
3. Mr. Hublot
4. Possessions
5. Room on the Broom

Will Win: Mr. Hublot

Spoiler: Get a Horse

Dark Horse: Room on the Broom

All signs point to Get a Horse, but I was unimpressed both times I saw it (the two times I saw Frozen), so I'm going for what seems to be the consensus second choice.

Best Documentary Short:

Nominees:

1. CaveDigger
2. Facing Fear
3. Karama Has No Walls
4. The Last in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
5. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Spoiler: Karama Has No Walls

Dark Horse: CaveDigger

I essentially just put things down blindly.

Best Live Action Short:

Nominees:

1. Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)
2. Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
3. Helium
4. Pitääkö mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
5. The Voorman Problem

Will Win: The Voorman Problem

Spoiler: Helium

Dark Horse: Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)

This is the only short category of which I am essentially certain.

As you can see, I sincerely think (and am hoping with everything I have) that American Hustle gets shutout. If it does, it will be tie the Coens' True Grit (maybe some others, too, I don't know) for 3rd-most nominations without a win, The Turning Point and The Color Purple tied at 1st with 11.

What I Would Have Nominated in 2013

I still haven't done my reactions to the rest of the Oscar category nominations, and I might not get around to it. But, since it won't take very long, I'm going to list my top 10 for all of the main categories, at least insofar as I've seen films. Some categories will have some poorly rated performances and will not even include 10 nominees because I simply have not seen enough, but I will be constantly updating this as I see more.

Best Picture:

1. 12 Years a Slave—97
2. Her—96
3. Frozen—95
4. Dallas Buyers Club—94
5. The Wolf of Wall Street—94
6. Inside Llewyn Davis—93
7. Mud—93
8. Gravity—91
9. Short Term 12—89
10. Prisoners—88

Other Films with Score >80: Blue Jasmine; Captain Phillips; Enough Said; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Wadjda

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Spike Jonze for Her
5. Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Jeff Nichols for Mud
7. Jean-Marc Vallée for Dallas Buyers Club
8. Denis Villeneuve for Prisoners
9. Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee for Frozen
10. Destin Daniel Cretton for Short Term 12

Best Actor:

1. Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club as Ron Woodroof—5
2. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street as Jordan Belfort—5
3. Joaquin Phoenix in Her as Theodore Twombly—5
4. Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis as Llewyn Davis—5
5. Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave as Solomon Northup—5
6. Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips as Captain Richard Phillips—5
7. Jake Gyllenhaal in Prisoners as Detective Loki—5
8. Tye Sheridan in Mud as Ellis—4.5
9. Steve Coogan in Philomena as Martin Sixsmith—4.5
10. Bruce Dern in Nebraska as Woody Grant—4

Best Actress:

1. Brie Larson in Short Term 12 as Grace—5
2. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine as Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis—5
3. Sandra Bullock in Gravity as Dr. Ryan Stone—4.5
4. Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks as P.L. Travers—4.5
5. Kristen Bell in Frozen as Princess Anna of Arendelle—4.5
6. Julia Louis-Dreyfus in Enough Said as Eva—4.5
7. Agata Kulesza in Ida as Wanda Gruz—4
8. Judi Dench in Philomena as Philomena Lee—4
9. Agata Trzebuchowska in Ida as Ida Lebenstein—3.5
10. Waad Mohammed in Wadjda as Wadjda—3.5

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave as Edwin Epps—5
2. Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips as Abduwali Muse—5
3. Matthew McConaughey in Mud as Mud—4.5
4. James Gandolfini in Enough Said as Albert—4.5
5. Matthew McConaughey in The Wolf of Wall Street as Mark Hanna—4.5
6. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club as Rayon—5
7. Luke Evans in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as Bard the Bowman—4.5
8. Colin Farrell in Saving Mr. Banks as Travers Goff—4.5
9. Jeremy Renner in American Hustle as Carmine Polito—4
10. Richard Armitage in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as Thorin Oakenshield—4

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years of Slave as Patsey—5
2. Sarah Paulson in 12 Years a Slave as Mary Epps—4.5
3. Melissa Leo in Prisoners as Holly Jones—4.5
4. Scarlett Johansson in Her as Samantha—4.5
5. Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine as Ginger—4
6. Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn Davis as Jean Berkey—4
7. Amy Adams in Her as Amy—4
8. Alfre Woodard in 12 Years a Slave as Mistress Harriet Shaw—4
9. Reem Abdullah in Wadjda as Mother—3.5
10. June Squibb in Nebraska as Kate Grant—3.5

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter, from the memoir by Jordan Belfort)
2. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley, from the memoir Twelve Years a Slave by Solomon Northup)
3. Philomena (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, from the book The Lost Child of Philomena Lee by Martin Sixsmith)
4. Short Term 12 (Destin Daniel Cretton, from the short film written and directed by him)
5. Frozen (Jennifer Lee, Chris Buck, and Shane Morris, from the fairy tale The Snow Queen by Hans Christian Andersen)
6. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray, from the book A Captain's Duty: Somali Pirates, Navy SEALs, and Dangerous Days at Sea by Richard Phillips and Stephan Talty)
7. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, and Guillermo del Toro, from the novel The Hobbit by J.R.R. Tolkien)

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. Mud (Jeff Nichols)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel and Ethan Coen)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack)
5. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
6. Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
7. Prisoners (Aaron Guzikowski)
8. Wadjda (Haifaa al-Mansour)
9. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón)
10. Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith)

I know there are numerous films, performances, etc. not listed here, and that’s because I haven’t seen them. I am attempting to remedy this, though the process with be long.

Oscar Nomination Reactions 2013

Oscar Nominations Day, it seems, is a day for me to wake up early, getting much less sleep than I otherwise would, because I’m excited to see the nominees as they’re announced. Every year, though, they make decisions that, at best, make me shake my head. This year, though, the Academy really outdid itself. If not for my sleeping roommate, there were have been much yelling (and perhaps even some expletive flinging) at some of this year’s head-scratchers.

Here are my reactions to the main categories. I have fewer thoughts on all of the others, so this should pretty much split the length up in half, with the second set of reactions coming out probably tomorrow sometime. For this post, I will also put my score (out of 100 for films; out of 5 for performances, directorial efforts, and screenplays) next to everything, as well as ranking them.

Best Picture Predictions:

1.      12 Years a Slave

2.      Gravity

3.      American Hustle

4.      The Wolf of Wall Street

5.      Nebraska

6.      Saving Mr. Banks

7.      Captain Phillips

8.      Her

9.      Inside Llewyn Davis

10.  Dallas Buyers Club

First Ones In: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County

Other Alternates: Philomena; Before Midnight

Actual Best Picture:

1.      12 Years a Slave (97)-1

2.      American Hustle (56)-9

3.      Captain Phillips (88)-6

4.      Dallas Buyers Club (95)-3

5.      Gravity (91)-5

6.      Her (96)-2

7.      Nebraska (62)-8

8.      Philomena (78)-7

9.      The Wolf of Wall Street (94)-4

Score: 7/9

Reaction: If you stick to the Academy’s number of 9 nominees, then I got 7/9, or 8/9 if you allow me 10 prediction slots for 9 nominations. Anyway, that’s not all that bad, I don’t think, though last year I was perfect in this category, 9/9, with Moonrise Kingdom as my #10. That said, I am pretty ecstatic with the results here. Sure, I don’t think this category (or pretty much any of them for that reason) should be touching American Hustle or Nebraska with a 10-foot pole, but it was going to happen all along, so I’m not going to fight it (trust me, there’s much complaining to come on that front). Dallas Buyers Club getting in absolutely terrific, and while I’m disappointed I didn’t get Saving Mr. Banks right, I’m happier that Philomena was nominated as opposed to SMB. Very, very, very disappointed Inside Llewyn Davis failed to make it on, though.

Best Director Predictions:

1.      Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

2.      Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

3.      Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

4.      Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

5.      David O. Russell for American Hustle

First One In: Alexander Payne for Nebraska

Other Alternates: Spike Jonze for Her; Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine; J.C. Chandor for All Is Lost

Actual Best Director:

1.      Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity (5)-1

2.      Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave (5)-2

3.      Alexander Payne for Nebraska (2.5)-4

4.      David O. Russell for American Hustle (2)-5

5.      Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street (5)-3

Score: 4/5

Reaction: Again, not a bad showing at all. Alexander Payne is an Academy darling, so I’m not surprised, even though I think his nomination, as well as Russell’s, is horrendous. Russell is such an absolute jerk that he deserves nothing, ever. I really liked his direction of Silver Linings Playbook, but here he shows his true colors. He has put Christopher Nolan in a headlock for trying to steal Jude Law for a movie (Jude Law? Seriously!). He also got into a fistfight with Clooney over his poor treatment of extras (I assume that was on Three Kings), and his fights with Lily Tomlin, which can be found on YouTube, are pretty bad. (All info courtesy of Louis Morgan (actoroscar.blogspot.com)). There were really only 6 legitimate contenders this year (sorry, Spike), and Greengrass’s hand-held, wobbly style is troubling to many, so his absence is understandable, and thus Payne gets on.

Best Actor Predictions:

1.      Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave

2.      Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

3.      Tom Hanks in Captain Hanks

4.      Bruce Dern in Nebraska

5.      Robert Redford in All Is Lost

First One In: Christian Bale in American Hustle

Second One In: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street

Third One In: Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis

Other Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix in Her; Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station; Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Actual Best Actor:

1.      Christian Bale in American Hustle (3)-5

2.      Bruce Dern in Nebraska (4)-4

3.      Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street (5)-2

4.      Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave (5)-3

5.       Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club (5)-1

Score: 3/5

Reaction: This was very unfortunate. I have seen neither Hanks nor Redford, but I have not heard anything negative about any of them, and most things are quite positive, so it’s a shame that somebody so mediocre like Bale gets on. When I saw Cooper and then Bale get nominations, I knew American Hustle was in for making a killing, and they did. It’s a borderline terrible movie that is poorly directed, disgustingly overacted, horrendously underacted, and just plain bad. Not one “character-driven” moment seems authentic in any way, and much of the film, which should be continuously fun in the vein of the ‘70s heist it masquerades as, is terribly boring. Bale is fine, but does nothing with his character, which fortunately for him, is supposed to be a boring guy.

Best Actress Predictions:

1.      Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

2.      Sandra Bullock in Gravity

3.      Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks

4.      Judi Dench in Philomena

5.      Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

First One In: Amy Adams in American Hustle

Other Alternates: Brie Larson in Short Term 12; Adèle Exarchopoulos in Blue Is the Warmest Colour; Julie Delpy in Before Midnight

Actual Best Actress:

1.      Amy Adams in American Hustle (3.5)-3

2.      Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (not seen)-N/A

3.      Sandra Bullock in Gravity (4.5)-1

4.      Judi Dench in Philomena (3.5)-2

5.      Meryl Streep in August: Osage County (not seen)-N/A

Score: 4/5

Reaction: It is very unfortunate that Emma Thompson got snubbed for Amy Adams’ performance and for Meryl Streep. Let’s be honest: Streep got on because she’s Streep (granted I haven’t seen her). Adams used to be my favorite lead member of Hustle’s cast, but the more I think about her, the more I dislike her. It’s unfortunate that Thompson, my current #2 for the year, got snubbed. Her film was so-so at times, but she was always great, lending much-needed depth to a sometimes idle script. Kristen Bell not even being in the conversation for her brilliant voice work in Frozen is understandable, but frustrating nonetheless.

Best Supporting Actor:

1.      Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

2.      Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave

3.      Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips

4.      Daniel Brühl in Rush

5.      James Gandolfini in Enough Said

First One In: Bradley Cooper in American Hustle

Second One In: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks

Third One In: Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street

Other Alternates: nobody really

Actual Best Supporting Actor:

1.      Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips (5)-2

2.      Bradley Cooper in American Hustle (2)-5

3.      Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave (5)-1

4.      Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street (3)-4

5.      Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club (5)-3

Score: 3/5

Reaction: First, let’s get the snubs out of the way before I rage against the machine. I thought James Gandolfini would get on because he had the SAG nomination and because he died within the past year, but evidently playing completely against type (film type, evidently he was an immensely gentle and loving guy in real life) and dying isn’t good enough. Brühl, who I figured was a long shot at the beginning, got every single major prerequisite nomination. SAG, BAFTA, Globes. What else does a guy need? I haven’t seen Rush, which was completely shut-out surprisingly, so I can’t comment, but he’d be hard-pressed to be worse than Cooper. Hill was fine, and better than his Moneyball nomination, but he wasn’t worthy of his nomination. Cooper was horrendous. He played an off-the-wall character, but never figured out how to create an actual character. Instead, his outbursts have no backing in the personality he otherwise emits, which should have been an overly ambitious one. Everything about this performance is bad, and I’m toying with knocking him down to a 1.5 instead of a 2.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions:

1.      Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave

2.      Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

3.      Julia Roberts in August: Osage County

4.      June Squibb in Nebraska

5.      Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine

First One In: Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Other Alternates: nobody, but there should be, especially Sarah Paulson and Alfre Woodard in 12 Years, Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn, Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers, and Margot Robbie in The Wolf.

Actual Best Supporting Actress:

1.      Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave (5)-1

2.      Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle (3.5)-3_

3.      Julia Roberts in August: Osage County (not seen)-N/A

4.      June Squibb in Nebraska (3.5)-2

5.      Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine (not seen)-N/A

Score: 5/5

Reaction: Checkmate, atheists! It’s a real shame I got all 5 in such a terribly weak category, though. Nyong’o was a shoo-in, but her co-star Sarah Paulson should have been, too. Roberts, sight unseen, is obviously a co-lead, but I’ve heard it might be her first semi-good performance, so kudos to her. Squibb is fine as the sassy old woman but adds little-to-no of the requisite emotional depth. Lawrence is sometimes overacting and sometimes entertaining, though she always just seems to be repeating her SLP performance when she is the latter. Perhaps worst of all, though, she is, at age 23, incredibly unconvincing as a woman who has supposedly been in a dead-end marriage for 10 years of so. Is terrible casting, and Lawrence does nothing to help it.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1.      12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

2.      The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

3.      Philomena (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope)

4.      Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

5.      Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy)

First One In: August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

Second One In: Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

Other Alternates: none that I can think of

Actual Best Adapted Screenplay:

1.      12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) (5)-2

2.      Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy) (not seen)-N/A

3.      Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) (4-4.5)-4

4.      Philomena (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope) (4.5)-3

5.      The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) (5)-1

Score: 5/5

Reaction: 2 perfects in a row. As far as I know, this is a very strong category, and the only film with the potential to be a better option than one of these is Frozen, which wasn’t even in the conversation, so what can you do.

Best Original Screenplay:

1.      American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell)

2.      Her (Spike Jonze)

3.      Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

4.      Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel and Ethan Coen)

5.      Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

First One In: Dallas Buyers Club

Second One In: Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)

Other Alternates: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón)

Actual Best Original Screenplay:

1.      American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell) (2.5)-3

2.      Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) (not seen)-N/A

3.      Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack) (4.5)-2

4.      Her (Spike Jonze) (5)-1

5.      Nebraska (Bob Nelson) (2.5)-4

Score: 4/5

Reaction: This is a pretty bad category. Gravity, a pretty weak script, would have made this a better category, as would have Saving Mr. Banks’s sappy, schmaltz-fest. I’m sure Blue Jasmine and Her are good, but they cannot save this category from the terribleness in the room, American Hustle and Nebraska.

Of the films nominated in these 8 major categories, I still must see Captain Phillips and Her, both of which I hope to see this weekend, as well as Blue Jasmine, August: Osage County, and Before Midnight.

As I said, I will probably get the rest of the categories out tomorrow. At the end of that, I will do some sort of summation where I discuss overall goods, bads, and uglies (I think most people know where that one will lead). Until then, good night, and good luck.

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2013

Oscar nominations come out in the morning at 8:30 Eastern/5:30 Pacific, so I will be up at 7:15 or so in order to watch the announcement.

Anyway, here are my predictions for every single category.

All of my predictions are in order of likelihood, especially further down the list in each category:

Best Picture:

1.      12 Years a Slave

2.      Gravity

3.      American Hustle

4.      The Wolf of Wall Street

5.      Nebraska

6.      Saving Mr. Banks

7.      Captain Phillips

8.      Her

9.      Inside Llewyn Davis

10.  Dallas Buyers Club

First Ones In: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County

Other Alternates: Philomena; Before Midnight

Thoughts: I am pretty much 100% confident that the first 7 will be nominated. If the Academy continues their trend of 9 nominees instead of 10, then I hope Dallas Buyers gets in ahead of Inside Llewyn Davis, even though Davis was very good.

Best Director:

1.      Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

2.      Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

3.      Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

4.      Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

5.      David O. Russell for American Hustle

First One In: Alexander Payne for Nebraska

Other Alternates: Spike Jonze for Her; Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine; J.C. Chandor for All Is Lost

Thoughts: The first 3 are virtual locks, and Greengrass is pretty much a lock too. I thought both Russell’s and Payne’s directorial efforts were sub-par, but they’re definitely the two people duking it out for that 5^th spot.

Best Actor:

1.      Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave

2.      Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

3.      Tom Hanks in Captain Hanks

4.      Bruce Dern in Nebraska

5.      Robert Redford in All Is Lost

First One In: Christian Bale in American Hustle

Second One In: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street

Third One In: Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis

Other Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix in Her; Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station; Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Thoughts: As long as Bale doesn’t get nominated, I will be happy. I would love for DiCaprio or Isaac to get on instead of the good-but-not-great Dern, but that doesn’t seem all that likely. So I’m going with the consensus prediction and hoping that American Hustle gets as little love as possible.

Best Actress:

1.      Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

2.      Sandra Bullock in Gravity

3.      Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks

4.      Judi Dench in Philomena

5.      Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

First One In: Amy Adams in American Hustle

Other Alternates: Brie Larson in Short Term 12; Adèle Exarchopoulos in Blue Is the Warmest Colour; Julie Delpy in Before Midnight

Thoughts: This seems to be the most set-in-stone category in recent years, which is not really necessarily a good thing. I liked Thompson more than most, but was very underwhelmed by Dench. I haven’t seen Blanchett, but I doubt I’d dislike her. I also haven’t seen Streep, but I figure she’s just doing Streep. I hope the Academy decides to broaden its horizons with Larson, Exarchopoulos, or Delpy, but I know it won’t. Also, while I did think Adams was decent, I don’t think she’s worthy. Also, why is Julia Roberts a supporting actress in August? I know she isn’t and I haven’t even seen it. What’s the deal with not recognizing brilliant voice work? Kristen Bell should 100% be in the conversation and she’s nowhere close.

Best Supporting Actor:

1.      Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

2.      Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave

3.      Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips

4.      Daniel Brühl in Rush

5.      James Gandolfini in Enough Said

First One In: Bradley Cooper in American Hustle

Second One In: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks

Third One In: Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street

Other Alternates: nobody really

Thoughts: This is a fascinating category in my opinion. It has the potential, if my predictions are correct, to have 0 total Oscar nominations in it. That being said, Gandolfini is at risk to Cooper, who has 1 and was horrendous in his movie, and, despite their great success, either Abdi and Brühl could be replaced by Hanks. Anybody but Cooper, anybody but Cooper, anybody but Cooper, anybody but Cooper.

Best Supporting Actress:

1.      Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave

2.      Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

3.      Julia Roberts in August: Osage County

4.      June Squibb in Nebraska

5.      Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine

First One In: Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Other Alternates: nobody, but there should be, especially Sarah Paulson and Alfre Woodard in 12 Years, Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn, Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers, and Margot Robbie in The Wolf.

Thoughts: What a dreadfully weak category. This is always a weak category, but damn, this is bad. Going for Hawkins and not Winfrey is a real leap of faith, but I would prefer a stronger category.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1.      12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

2.      The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

3.      Philomena (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope)

4.      Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

5.      Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy)

First One In: August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

Other Alternates: Second One In: Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

Thoughts: This is a strong category. 12 Years, Wolf, and Philomena are all very strong scripts, and I’ve also heard great things about Captain Phillips and Before Midnight. Lone Survivor is a major long-shot, and August: Osage County’s script just got some bad reviews, but it’s a definite threat to make it instead of Before Midnight.

Best Original Screenplay:

1.      American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell)

2.      Her (Spike Jonze)

3.      Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

4.      Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel and Ethan Coen)

5.      Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

First One In: Dallas Buyers Club

Second One In: Enough Said

Other Alternates: Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón)

Thoughts: This is also a weak category. Dallas Buyers is my favorite Original of the year (based on what I’ve seen, of course), and I did not like the screenplays to American Hustle and Nebraska, but this is almost certainly the lineup.

Best Animated Feature:

1.      Frozen

2.      The Wind Rises

3.      Monsters University

4.      Despicable Me 2

5.      Ernest and Celestine

First One In: The Croods

Other Alternates: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2; Epic; Planes

Thoughts: Going with Ernest and Celestine instead of The Croods will, in all likelihood, come back to bite me, but they’ve surprised before with things like The Pirates! Band of Misfits, A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, The Illusionist, and The Secret of the Kells, so I’m hoping Ernest and Celestine with be this year’s The Triplets of Belleville.

Best Foreign Language Film:

First here’s the shortlist:

The Broken Down Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

The Notebook (Hungary)

Omar (Palestine)

Two Lives (Germany)

1.      The Great Beauty (Italy)

2.      The Hunt (Denmark)

3.      The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)

4.      The Broken Down Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

5.      Omar (Palestine)

First One In: Two Lives (Germany)

Second One In: The Notebook (Hungary)

Thoughts: The Great Beauty is the run-away favorite with The Hunter a distant second. Everything else is far behind. The Grandmaster benefits from its pedigree, and while Omar is perhaps slightly less likely than Two Lives, I’m giving it the nod because it’s directed by the guy who did Paradise Now, and I think name recognition, if that even exists for Hany Abu-Assad, will make a difference over Two Lives.

Best Documentary Feature:

First here’s the shortlist:

20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing

The Armstrong Lie

Blackfish

The Crash Reel

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

First Cousin Once Removed

God Loves Uganda

Life According to Sam

Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer

The Square

Stories We Tell

Tim’s Vermeer

Which Way Is the Front Line from Here?

1.      The Act of Killing

2.      Stories We Tell

3.      Blackfish

4.      The Square

5.      The Armstrong Lie

First One In: 20 Feet from Stardom

Other Alternates: Tim’s Vermeer

Thoughts: While I do like documentaries, I see a negligible number of them (less than 1 per year) and have no idea about what’s going to be nominated here. The Act of Killing has garnered significant praise, as has Stories We Tell. The Armstrong Lie is, evidently, a long-shot, but it seems just the type of thing they’d go for. Alex Gibney, who directed Armstrong, is also receiving a Writers’ Guild Award for his career, so I could see him making it on. 20 Feet from Stardom, which is about backup singers or something just seems really boring to me, which is why I’m not putting it on.

Best Production Design:

1.      The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn)

2.      12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker)

3.      Gravity (Andy Nicholson and Rosie Goodwin)

4.      American Hustle (Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler)

5.      The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dan Hennah and Ra Vincent)

First One In: Saving Mr. Banks (Michael Corenblith and Susan Benjamin)

Second One In: Oz: The Great and Powerful (Robert Stromberg and Nancy Haigh)

Other Alternates: Her (K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena)

Thoughts: I don’t really have any opinion here, other than that The Hobbit and 12 Years should be the only ones in the conversation for the win. American Hustle was very good but not great. In case people actually care about the category, though, I should explain that it is a combination of Art Direction and Set Design. Essentially that boils down to sets and props. Every set you see in a movie was drawn by a set designer and every prop was chosen to create the time and geographical setting, etc.

Best Cinematography:

1.      Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

2.      12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbit)

3.      Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)

4.      Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)

5.      Prisoners (Roger Deakins

First One In: Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)

Second One In: Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle)

Other Alternates: none

Thoughts: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are definite locks. Inside Llewyn Davis seems to be a lock too. So does Nebraska, even though that’s only because it’s in black-and-white. Prisoners is probably less likely than Captain Phillips and Rush, but I’m expecting the Academy to balk at Captain Phillips’s shakiness and for Deakins’ name recognition to propel him to his 10^th nomination and, eventually, his 10^th loss. If Lubezki doesn’t win this thing, it will be the biggest debacle since he lost for The Tree of Life 3 years ago.

Best Costume Design:

1.      The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)

2.      12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

3.      American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)

4.      Saving Mr. Banks (Daniel Orlandi)

5.      Oz: The Great and Powerful (Gary Jones)

First One In: The Invisible Woman (Michael O’Connor)

Other Alternates: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Trish Summerville); The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey, and Richard Taylor)

Thoughts: American Hustle is more likely than Oz and Mr. Banks, and I hate that fact. I’d say this category is pretty solid, unless The Invisible Woman makes it in, which is a distinct possibility.

Best Editing:

1.      Gravity (Mark Sanger and Alfonso Cuarón)

2.      Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)

3.      12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

4.      The Wolf of Wall Street (Thelma Schoonmaker)

5.      Rush (Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill)

First One In: American Hustle (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers)

Other Alternates: none

Thoughts: Well-made, physical thrillers are always the best bets in this category, followed by Best Picture contenders, which is why I’m insane for going with Rush instead of American Hustle, but I just didn’t like the latter, and the former fits the bill, so there we have it. I’ll probably pay for it come the morning, but I don’t care.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

First the shortlist:

American Hustle

Bad Grandpa

Dallas Buyers Club

The Great Gatsby

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

The Lone Ranger

1.      American Hustle

2.      Dallas Buyers Club

3.      The Great Gatsby

First One In: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Other Alternates: The Lone Ranger

Thoughts: If Dallas Buyers isn’t nominated for this, I will flip out. If it’s not nominated for Best Picture, then, statistically, American Hustle cannot lose. If/When it does win, it quite possibly will be the film’s only worthy win.

Best Original Score:

1.      Gravity (Steven Price)

2.      12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)

3.      The Book Thief (John Williams)

4.      Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

5.      Captain Phillips (Henry Jackman)

First One In: All Is Lost (Alex Ebert)

Other Alternates: Rush (Hans Zimmer)

Thoughts: All Is Lost won‎‎’t make it in because it won the Golden Globe. On the seldom occasions when the Globes get it right, the Oscars don’t. This will be an interesting duel between Gravity and 12 Years come Oscar night. Rush is technically the second one in, but that’s incredibly unlikely. Let’s be honest: John Williams is the only guy they’d nominate twice in one year nowadays. Also, if I’m correct, then congratulations to Thomas Newman for his 12^th nomination and 12^th loss in this category.

Best Original Song:

1.      “Let It Go” from Frozen (written by Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez and performed by Idina Menzel (film) and Demi Lovato (credits)) (Idina’s is the best)

2.      “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (written by U2 and Brian Burton and performed by U2)

3.      “Young and Beautiful” (written by Lana Del Ray and Rick Nowels and performed by Del Ray)

4.      The Moon Song (written by Karen Orzolek and Spike Jonze and performed by Karen O)

5.      Atlas (written and performed by Coldplay)

First One In: “Happy” from Despicable Me 2 (written and performed by Pharrell Williams)

Other Alternates: “I See Fire” from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (written and performed by Ed Sheeran); “My Lord Sunshine” from 12 Years a Slave (written by Nicholas Britell and performed by David Hughey and Roosevelt Credit)

Thoughts: It’s a huge shame “In Summer”, and “Love Is an Open Door” to a lesser extent, from Frozen weren’t shortlisted. Same with “Please Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis.

Overall, I’ll probably only get the top three correct, as the music department votes incredibly oddly for this category every year. “I See Fire” didn’t really work with the movie in my opinion. I’m very happy “Ordinary Love” won the Globe because the Globes and the Oscars pretty much never match up in this category, and I want “Let It Go” to win incredibly badly.

Best Sound Editing

1.      Gravity

2.      All Is Lost

3.      Captain Phillips

4.      Rush

5.      12 Years a Slave

First One In: Lone Survivor

Other Alternates: Pacific Rim

Thoughts: Most importantly, this means sound effects editing, so things like explosions, weather phenomena, car crashes, etc. This pretty much has more to do with sound creation than anything else. Thus, Gravity, All Is Lost, and Rush are locks, as is Captain Phillips.

Sound Mixing:

1.      Gravity

2.      Captain Phillips

3.      All Is Lost

4.      12 Years a Slave

5.      Rush

First One In: Inside Llewyn Davis

Other Alternates: absolutely none

Thoughts: This is the category for sound. So how well are all of the sound tracks (speech, score, crickets chirping, etc.) put together. Inside Llewyn Davis is on the outside looking in only because the other five are so strong in this regard. Rush, though, could lose its place.

Best Visual Effects:

1.      Gravity

2.      The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

3.      Pacific Rim

4.      Elysium

5.      Star Trek Into Darkness

First One In: Iron Man 3

Other Alternates: World War Z

Thoughts: Gravity can’t lose (apologies in advance to the excellent effects by The Hobbit’s crew), so trying to figure out who else will be nominated is just an exercise in vanity. Anyway, Elysium has the umph the Academy needs, and Iron Man 3 doesn’t seem to really be anything special. World War Z suffers because it really only has zombies (at least that’s what it looked like to me as I didn’t actually subject myself to it).

Best Animated Short:

1.      Get a Horse

2.      Room on the Broom

3.      Mr. Hublot

4.      Subconscious Password

5.      The Missing Scarf

First One In: Feral

Other Alternates: I have no idea

Thoughts: Get a Horse, which preceded Frozen, is the only one I’ve seen, and though it’s good, it’s nowhere near Flying Books from a few years ago, still the greatest short I’ve ever seen. I don’t care about the short categories at all, and from the way they nominate things in these 3 categories, it seems like Academy members don’t either.

Best Live Action Short:

1.      The Voorman Problem

2.      Tiger Boy

3.      Dva (Two)

4.      Kush

5.      Throat Song

First One In: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)

Other Alternates: Drawing from a hat might serve you better.

Thoughts: The Voorman Problem will probably win as it’s based on part number9dream by David Mitchell (who also wrote Cloud Atlas) and stars Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander. Other than that, see my last sentence for Best Animated Short.

Best Documentary Short:

1.      The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

2.      Facing Fear

3.      Cavedigger

4.      Slomo

5.      Jujitsu-ing Reality

First One In: Karama Has No Walls; Prison Terminal: Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Other Alternate: Recollections (I have just included all of the shortlisted shorts)

Thoughts: I really don’t have any idea what any of these are about and will never see a single one of them.