Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are just around the corner, as in tonight, so here are my predictions, without category run-downs or explanations.

Best Picture:
Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Captain Phillips
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. Gravity
5. Her
6. Nebraska
7. Philomena
8. 12 Years a Slave
9. The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Spoiler: Gravity

Spoiler 2: American Hustle

Dark Horse: The Wolf of Wall Street

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Hopefully Will NOT Win If Justice Exists: American Hustle

Best Director:

Nominees:

1. Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
4. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
5. David O. Russell for American Hustle

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Spoiler: Steve McQueen

Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actor:

Nominees:

1. Christian Bale in American Hustle
2. Bruce Dern in Nebraska
3. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
5. Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio

Dark Horse: Chiwetel Ejiofor

Should Win: Matthew McConaughey

One the "Will Win" matters because McConaughey has had this in the bag since the movie hit the screen.

Best Actress:

Nominees:

1. Amy Adams in American Hustle
2. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
3. Sandra Bullock in Gravity
4. Judi Dench in Philomena
5. Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Spoiler: Judi Dench (old British people, mainly)

Dark Horse: Amy Adams

Should Win: Sandra Bullock (Brie Larson)

All that said, Blanchett's BAFTA win over Dench all but gives her the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor:

Nominees:

1. Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
2. Bradley Cooper in American Hustle
3. Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
4. Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Jared Leto

Spoiler: Michael Fassbender

Dark Horse: Barkhad Abdi (when you win BAFTA, you shouldn't be underestimated)

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

Leto's had this one in the bag almost as long as McConaughey.

Best Supporting Actress:

Nominees:

1. Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine
2. Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
3. Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave
4. Julia Roberts in August: Osage County
5. June Squibb in Nebraska

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o

Spoiler (MAJOR): Jennifer Lawrence (this isn't a Forrest Gump-type Oscar-baity performance (it's Oscar-baity in a different, worse way) and she's not Tracy or Hepburn, but she has almost equivalent awards traction)

Dark Horse: June Squibb

Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o (Sarah Paulson in the same movie)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Nominees:

1. Before Midnight
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Spoiler: The Wolf of Wall Street

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips

Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Screenplay:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Blue Jasmine
3. Dallas Buyers Club
4. Her
5. Nebraska

Will Win: Her

Spoiler (MAJOR): American Hustle

Dark Horse: Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen is always a threat)

Should Win: Her

American Hustle has more overall traction, but Her seems to have been coming on strong lately.

Best Animated Feature:

Nominees:

1. The Croods
2. Despicable Me 2
3. Ernest and Celestine
4. Frozen
5. The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen

Spoiler: The Wind Rises (Miyazaki may get a 2nd award for his final project)

Dark Horse: Despicable Me 2

Should Win: Frozen (I'll admit to not having seen The Wind Rises, the only legitimate challenger.)

Best Foreign Language Film:

Nominees:

1. The Broken Circle Breakdown (from Belgium, in Dutch)
2. The Great Beauty (from Italy, in Italian)
3. The Hunt (from Denmark, in Danish)
4. The Missing Picture (from Cambodia, in French)
5. Omar (from Palestine, in Arabic)

Will Win: The Great Beauty

Spoiler: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Dark Horse: The Hunt

Best Documentary Feature:

Nominees:

1. The Act of Killing
2. Cutie and the Boxer
3. Dirty Wars
4. The Square
5. 20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: The Act of Killing

Spoiler: 20 Feet from Stardom

Dark Horse: The Square

Dark Horse 2: Dirty Wars

Best Production Design:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. Gravity
3. The Great Gatsby
4. Her
5. 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Spoiler: Gravity

Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Her (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)

Best Cinematography:

Nominees:

1. The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
2. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
4. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
5. Prisoners (Roger Deakins)

Will Win: Gravity:

Spoiler: Inside Llewyn Davis

Dark Horse: Nebraska

Dark Horse 2: Prisoners

Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis (or 12 Years a Slave, I can't decide)

Best Costume Design:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle
2. The Grandmaster
3. The Great Gatsby
4. The Invisible Woman
5. 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Spoiler: 12 Years a Slave

Dark Horse: The Invisible Woman

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave or The Invisible Woman

Best (Film) Editing:

Nominees:

1. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, and Alan Baumgarten)
2. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
3. Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy and Martin pensa)
4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger)
5. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Captain Phillips

Dark Horse: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Gravity (or The Wolf of Wall Street, I can't decide)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominees:

1. Dallas Buyers Club
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
3. The Lone Ranger

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club (BP nominee has never lost, if I'm not mistaken)

Spoiler: Bad Grandpa

Dark Horse: The Lone Ranger

Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Original Score:

Nominees:

1. The Book Thief (John Williams)
2. Gravity (Steven Price)
3. Her (William Butler and Owen Pallett (essentially Arcade Fire))
4. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Her

Dark Horse: Saving Mr. Banks

Should Win: Saving Mr. Banks

Note: For me, Gravity's score's issue is that it fails to show much beyond some incredibly effective suspense music. The movie doesn't really provide many opportunities for nuanced, lower key (or even simply hopeful) work. Arcade Fire's score for Her is too low key for me, and though it works perfectly with every frame of the film, it's simply not ear-catching. Thomas Newman's for Saving Mr. Banks is basically an agglomeration of his best ideas from past films tailor-made to fit a new one. I think he's the best living film composer, so maybe I'm biased, but this trumps his great work for Skyfall, American Beauty, Finding Nemo, and possibly even WALL-E, though it obviously fails to touch Shawshank Redemption.

Best Original Song:

Nominees:

1. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 (composed, written, and performed by Pharrell Williams)
2. "Let It Go" from Frozen (composed and written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, performed by Idina Menzel)
3. "The Moon Song" from Her (composed by Karen Orzolek (Karen O), written by Orzolek and Spike Jonze, and performed by Karen O)
4. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (composed by Paul Hewson (Bono), David Evans (The Edge), Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, Jr. (U2); written by Hewson; and performed by U2)

Will Win: "Let It Go"

Spoiler: "Ordinary Love"

Dark Horse: "The Moon Song"

Should Win: "Let It Go"

Easiest choice ever. With U2 getting the Golden Globe, Frozen's win is all but assured (the Globes and Oscars almost never agree in this category)

Best Sound Editing:

Nominees:

1. All Is Lost
2. Captain Phillips
3. Gravity
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Lone Survivor

Best Sound Mixing:

Nominees:

1. Captain Phillips
2. Gravity
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Lone Survivor

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: Inside Llewyn Davis

Dark Horse: Captain Phillips

Should Win: Gravity or Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:

1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Iron Man 3
4. The Lone Ranger
5. Star Trek Into Darkness

Will Win: Gravity

Spoiler: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Dark Horse: Star Trek Into Darkness

Should Win: Gravity

Best Animated Short:

Nominees:

1. Feral
2. Get a Horse
3. Mr. Hublot
4. Possessions
5. Room on the Broom

Will Win: Mr. Hublot

Spoiler: Get a Horse

Dark Horse: Room on the Broom

All signs point to Get a Horse, but I was unimpressed both times I saw it (the two times I saw Frozen), so I'm going for what seems to be the consensus second choice.

Best Documentary Short:

Nominees:

1. CaveDigger
2. Facing Fear
3. Karama Has No Walls
4. The Last in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
5. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Spoiler: Karama Has No Walls

Dark Horse: CaveDigger

I essentially just put things down blindly.

Best Live Action Short:

Nominees:

1. Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)
2. Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
3. Helium
4. Pitääkö mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
5. The Voorman Problem

Will Win: The Voorman Problem

Spoiler: Helium

Dark Horse: Aquel no era yo (That Wasn't Me)

This is the only short category of which I am essentially certain.

As you can see, I sincerely think (and am hoping with everything I have) that American Hustle gets shutout. If it does, it will be tie the Coens' True Grit (maybe some others, too, I don't know) for 3rd-most nominations without a win, The Turning Point and The Color Purple tied at 1st with 11.