Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Official 2013 Emmy Nominations and Analysis: Comedy Series

It took me far longer than I anticipated to get around the rest of my Emmy nomination analysis, but here it is:

Comedy Series:
I predicted:
  1. Modern Family
  2. The Big Bang Theory
  3. Arrested Development
  4. Louie
  5. Girls
  6. 30 Rock
Actual nominees:
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
30 Rock
Result: 5/6

Analysis: By no means bad, though I would have loved to have gotten all 6. I'm surprised Veep snuck on for a 2nd year in row, but am not disappointed about it in the least. I'm immensely disappointed Big Bang didn't get massively snubbed, but am not surprised it made it, of course. It's a massively popular show that could potentially win under much the same circumstances Friends did 11 years ago. It's a show in its late seasons that is at the top of weekly viewership every week. The difference between the two is that Friends was occasionally funny and actually had some brilliant episodes. Big Bang is never funny. The only times I even chuckle are when Sheldon has nothing to do with it. I'm completely fine with the rest of the nominees. I actually seen Girls, but a show with critical acclaim like that deserves a spot. 30 Rock is my favorite comedy of all time (though Frasier is a close second), Modern Family is absolutely hysterical and shows no signs of declining in quality, and Louie is brilliant. It works so perfectly despite, or perhaps because of, its groundbreaking storytelling method and its delicate, but perfectly executed juxtaposition of heartfelt moments, hysterical stand-up, and awkwardly hilarious black comedy. It's a hard category to predict. A 4th-straight Modern Family seems the most likely scenario at this point, with either Louie or 30 Rock in 2nd and 3rd position and Big Bang as the dark horse.
Likelihood of Winning:
  1. Modern Family
  2. 30 Rock
  3. Louie
  4. The Big Bang Theory
  5. Veep
  6. Girls

I predicted:
  1. Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy in 30 Rock
  2. Louis C.K. as Louie in Louie
  3. Jim Parsons as Dr. Sheldon Cooper in The Big Bang Theory
  4. Jason Bateman as Michael Bluth in Arrested Development
  5. Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan in House of Lies
  6. Jake Johnson as Nick Miller in New Girl
Actual nominees:
Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock
Jason Bateman in Arrested Development
Louis C.K. in Louie
Don Cheadle in House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc in Episodes
Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory
Result: 5/6

Analysis: Not a bad result at all. I had been waffling between LeBlanc and Johnson for quite a while and actually had just switched it back to Johnson right before nominations were announced. It's a reasonably strong field. There honestly aren't many great comedies around these days so the potential new nominees were scarce. Considering the rest of the categories, I'm rather surprised Bateman was nominated. C.K. and Baldwin are the clear frontrunners. It's Baldwin's final season with one of comedy's greatest ever lead male characters, and it's certainly not C.K.'s last season with another one of the genre's greatest characters.
Likelihood of Winning:
  1. Louis C.K. in Louie
  2. Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock
  3. Jason Bateman in Arrested Development
  4. Matt LeBlanc in Episodes
  5. Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory
  6. Don Cheadle in House of Lies
(Parsons certainly has a better chance of winning than I'm giving him credit for, but I hate him so much I can't give him any help.)

I predicted:
  1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in Veep
  2. Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath in Girls
  3. Tina Fey as Liz Lemon in 30 Rock
  4. Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in Parks and Recreation
  5. Zooey Deschanel as Jess Day in New Girl
  6. Edie Falco as Nurse Jackie Peyton in Nurse Jackie
Actual nominees:
Laura Dern as Amy Jellicoe in Enlightened
Lena Dunham in Girls
Edie Falco in Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey in 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus in Veep
Amy Poehler in Parks and Recreation
Result: 5/6

Analysis: Pretty good. Much happier Dern made it than if Deschanel had (her sister, Emily (aka Bones), is far more talented and far less lauded than Zooey). Louis-Dreyfus will probably repeat, and rightfully so, but I can always hope for my main girl Tina with the two part finale. That's pretty much it. Dern is the dark horse, I've just never seen her and I love Poehler.
Likelihood of Winning:
  1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus in Veep
  2. Tina Fey in 30 Rock
  3. Amy Poehler in Parks and Recreation
  4. Laura Dern in Enlightened
  5. Lena Dunham in Girls
  6. Edie Falco in Nurse Jackie

Supporting Actor-Comedy:
I predicted:
  1. Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker in Modern Family
  2. Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy in Modern Family
  3. Jeffrey Tambor as George Bluth, Sr./Oscar Bluth in Arrested Development
  4. Will Arnett as Gob Bluth in Arrested Development
  5. Simon Helberg as Howard Wolowitz in The Big Bang Theory
  6. Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett in Modern Family
Actual nominees:
Ty Burrell in Modern Family
Adam Driver as Adam Sackler in Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett in Modern Family
Bill Hader as various characters in Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale as Gary Walsh in Veep
Ed O'Neill in Modern Family
Result: 2/6

Analysis: Obviously a poor showing here, but I have good excuses. One of last year's 4 Modern Family men had to go, so I chose Ferguson. Instead, the didn't nominate Stonestreet, the cast member that makes me laugh almost constantly. The snubs for Tambor and Arnett were surprising, but not when the near absence of Arrested Development is considered. I'm really glad Helberg didn't make it. Hale didn't even put himself in contention for Arrested, but both series in combo probably gave him his nomination. Hader is an unfortunate waste as I've never found him to be the strongest member of the SNL cast. Driver is, as far as I can tell, a pleasant surprise. This one's a toss-up.
Likelihood of Winning:
  1. Ty Burrell in Modern Family
  2. Ed O'Neill in Modern Family
  3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson in Modern Family
  4. Adam Driver in Girls
  5. Bill Hader in SNL

Supporting Actress-Comedy:
I predicted:
  1. Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy in Modern Family
  2. Jessica Walter as Lucille Bluth in Arrested Development
  3. Allison Williams as Marnie Michaels in Girls
  4. Jane Krakowski as Jenna Maroney in 30 Rock
  5. Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett in Modern Family
  6. Kaley Cuoco as Penny in The Big Bang Theory
Actual nominees:
Mayim Bialik as Dr. Amy Farrah Fowler in The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen in Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer in Veep
Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock
Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester in Glee
Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow in Nurse Jackie
Result: 3/7

Analysis: I did pretty badly here too. I am psyched Krakowski was nominated as she's a 6-time person winner. She makes every episode better with her stupendous acting. I'm also glad that Bowen and Vergara made it, though, sight unseen, Vergara's episode selection is probably pretty poor. Bialik's nomination is disgusting an worthless since word has it she had far less to do this season than last. Chlumsky is a very welcome surprise indeed, and Wever's surprise repeat appearance is great and wholly unexpected. Lynch is an absolute head-scratcher, and not one that I am particularly pleased with. This one's also pretty much a toss-up.
Likelihood of Winning:
  1. Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock
  2. Julie Bowen in Modern Family
  3. Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
  4. Anna Chlumsky in Veep
  5. Jane Lynch in Glee
  6. Merritt Wever in Nurse Jackie
  7. Mayim Bialik in The Big Bang Theory

I'm not going to go into the writing, directing, or guest acting categories. Instead I'll list my predicted winners. These will be followed by my predicted winners in all of the Movie/Miniseries categories and the reality categories. Therefore I will make this my infuriated rant admonishing the Academy for nominating the great Betty White as Reality Host for the absolutely horrendous Off Their Rockers. Carson Daly is terrific and win-worthy for The Voice (the only reality competition series worth watching, I feel), and yet he wasn't even nominated.

Writing-Comedy: 30 Rock for Last Lunch
Directing-Comedy: Louie for New Years Eve
Guest Actor-Comedy: Bob Newhart on The Big Bang Theory (though Louis C.K. and even Justin Timberlake, both for SNL, are definite spoilers)
Guest Actress-Comedy: Melissa McCarthy on SNL
Movie/Miniseries: Behind the Candelabra
Actor-Movie/Miniseries: Michael Douglas in Behind the Candelabra (if he doesn't win it's the upset of forever)
Actress-Movie/Miniseries: Jessica Lange in American Horror Story: Asylum (Elisabeth Moss in Top of the Lake is an upset threat)
Supporting Actor-Movie/Miniseries: James Cromwell in AHS (Zachary Quinto in AHS is the only other real threat)
Supporting Actress-Movie/Miniseries: Sarah Paulson in AHS (runaway favorite)
Writing-Movie/Miniseries: Behind the Candelabra (The Hour is the best written, but BtC is the favorite for everything)
Directing-Movie/Miniseries: Behind the Candelabra
Reality Competition Series: The Amazing Race (because screw people who say something can't win every single year; it's actually a fine series, but The Voice is better)
Reality Host: Tom Bergeron for Dancing with the Stars
Reality Series: Shark Tank (Duck Dynasty was unfortunately not nominated)
Variety Series: Daily Show with Jon Stewart (he's great, but The Colbert Report has never received the recognition it wholly deserves)
Variety Special: Who da hell gives a crap?