Thursday, January 10, 2013

Oscars 2012: Oscar Predictions and Results


I know I didn’t publish any predictions for nominations, but I made them nonetheless, and now I’ll go over how I did. Also, that Les Mis review is in the works.

Best Picture:
How I predicted (in order of likelihood):
1.      Les Misérables
2.      Zero Dark Thirty
3.      Lincoln
4.      Argo
5.      Life of Pi
6.      Silver Linings Playbook
7.      Django Unchained
8.      Beasts of the Southern Wild
9.      Amour
10.  Moonrise Kingdom

How they nominated:
1.      Amour
2.      Argo
3.      Beasts of the Southern Wild
4.      Django Unchained
5.      Life of Pi
6.      Lincoln
7.      Les Misérables
8.      Silver Linings Playbook
9.      Zero Dark Thirty

Result: 9/9

Thoughts:
Like last year, they only ended up with 9 nominees, so the fact that my top 9 were what was eventually nominated is a successful day, I think. I’m disappointed Moonrise didn’t make it, but I’m elated The Master failed to make the ballot.

Projected Winner: Lincoln


Best Director:
How I predicted:
1.      Ben Affleck for Argo
2.      Ang Lee for Life of Pi
3.      Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
4.      Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
5.      Tom Hooper for Les Misérables

How they nominated:
1.      Michael Haneke for Amour
2.      Ang Lee for Life of Pi
3.      David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
4.      Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
5.      Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

Result: 2/5

Thoughts:
I’m extremely surprised and immensely disappointed here. Bigelow not getting nominated here essentially precludes Zero Dark from taking Picture and all but guarantees Lincoln’s victory. That’s the major surprise. Affleck not getting nominated is both a surprise and a huge disappointment for me. He wholly deserved a nomination for his tremendous, win-worthy work. I am, however, overjoyed to see the inclusions of both Russell and Zeitlin. Russell received praise, but not nearly enough, for his understated, heartfelt direction and Zeitlin received praise, though not nearly enough, for his amazing recreation of the complex feel and vibe of the bayou region. Tom Hooper’s omission is also annoying. This is Spielberg’s 7th nomination, Ang Lee’s 3rd, Russell’s 2nd, and Haneke’s and Zeitlin’s 1st.

Projected Winner: Spielberg


Best Actor:
How I predicted:
1.      Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
2.      Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
3.      Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
4.      Denzel Washington in Flight
5.      John Hawkes in The Sessions

How they nominated:
1.      Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
2.      Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
3.      Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
4.      Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
5.      Denzel Washington in Flight

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
I did quite well here too, though, as I didn’t really like Phoenix’s work, I can’t really agree. I was hoping that I’d be wrong and that Gere or Trintingant would surprise upset, but alas. This is Washington’s 6th nomination, Day-Lewis’ 5th, 3rd for Phoenix, and the first for both Cooper and Jackman.

Projected Winner: Day-Lewis


Best Actress:
How I predicted:
1.      Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
2.      Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
3.      Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone
4.      Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
5.      Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

How they voted:
1.      Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
2.      Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
3.      Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
4.      Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild
5.      Naomi Watts in The Impossible

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
Hallelujah! I was fearful the Academy had forgotten all about the terrific work by 9 year old Quvenzhané Wallis, but they didn’t, making her they youngest Best Actress nominee in history. I’m also happy to see Naomi Watts there since The Impossible deserved some recognition. This marks the 2nd nomination for Chastain, Lawrence, and Watts and the 1st for Riva and Wallis.

Projected Winner: Chastain or Lawrence


Best Supporting Actor:
How I predicted:
1.      Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
2.      Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
3.      Alan Arkin in Argo
4.      Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
5.      Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained

How they voted:
1.      Alan Arkin in Argo
2.      Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
3.      Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
4.      Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
5.      Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
I’m disappointed not to see Leo here, but Waltz is a fabulous replacement and was better in the film, actually. Nevertheless, a double-nomination for Django and an omission of Arkin would have been awesome, but life goes on. Even better, I would’ve loved to have seen Javier Bardem get nominated for his work in Skyfall, the best supporting work by an actor I’ve seen all year. Eddie Redmayne getting on for his tremendous work in Les Misérables would have also been great. On an interesting note, this is the first time in history that the Best Supporting Actor category has been filled wholly by previous nominees. This is the 7th nomination for De Niro, the 4th for Arkin, Hoffman, and Jones, and the 2nd for Waltz.

Projected Winner: No idea. Probably Jones at this point. If best performance wins, though, which they rarely do at things like this, watch Waltz waltz away in an easy victory.


Best Supporting Actress:
How I predicted:
1.      Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
2.      Sally Field in Lincoln
3.      Helen Hunt in The Sessions
4.      Amy Adams in The Master
5.      Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

How they nominated:
1.      Amy Adams in The Master
2.      Sally Field in Lincoln
3.      Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
4.      Helen Hunt in The Sessions
5.      Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
This really was an absolutely dreadful category this year, but I still don’t see why they had to go out and select such a middling candidate as their 5th nominee. Yes, I like Jacki Weaver. Her work in Animal Kingdom is fabulous and I loved Silver Linings Playbook, but she didn’t really deserve a nomination. Nominations-wise, this is the 4th for Adams, the 3rd for Field, and the 2nd for Hathaway, Hunt, and Weaver.

Projected Winner: Hathaway, duh!


Original Screenplay:
How I predicted:
1.      Django Unchained-Quentin Tarantino
2.      Moonrise Kingdom-Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
3.      Amour-Michael Haneke
4.      Zero Dark Thirty-Mark Boal
5.      The Master-Paul Thomas Anderson

How they voted:
1.      Amour-Michael Haneke
2.      Django Unchained-Quentin Tarantino
3.      Flight-John Gatins
4.      Moonrise Kingdom-Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
5.      Zero Dark Thirty-Mark Boal

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
Not a single surprise here. It was going to either be Flight or The Master and they successfully chose the better screenplay. As far as nominations go, this is the first for Haneke, Gatins, and Coppola, the second for Anderson and Boal, and the third by Tarantino.

Projected Winner: No idea. Probably Django, unless Zero Dark starts winning a ton and looks like it’ll surprise for Picture.


Adapted Screenplay
How I predicted:
1.      Silver Linings Playbook-David O. Russell
2.      Argo-Chris Terrio
3.      Lincoln-Tony Kushner
4.      Beasts of the Southern Wild-Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
5.      The Perks of Being a Wallflower-Stephen Chbosky

How they voted:
1.      Argo-Chris Terrio
2.      Beasts of the Southern Wild-Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
3.      Life of Pi-David Magee
4.      Lincoln-Tony Kushner
5.      Silver Linings Playbook-David O. Russell

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
I though Perks could surprise, but they went with the trusty Life of Pi, which I can’t really argue with. It’s not a technically great script, but the novel was always deemed unadaptable and Magee adapted it into quite a successful movie, so that’s that. I’m also very happy not to see Les Misérables here as the direction really is what did the adaptation here, which is why I’m so disappointed not to see Tom Hooper for Best Director. There’s simply no dialogue, so adapting wasn’t an issue. As far as nominations, this is the first for Terrio, Alibar, Zeitlin, and Russell, and the second for Magee and Kushner.


Animated Feature:
How I predicted
1.      Wreck-It Ralph
2.      Brave
3.      Frankenweenie
4.      ParaNorman
5.      Rise of the Guardians

How they nominated:
1.      Brave
2.      Frankenweenie
3.      ParaNorman
4.      The Pirates! Band of Misfits
5.      Wreck-It Ralph

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
Oh my goodness, I’m so happy! I love Aardman movies and Pirates! was no exception. I had been saying for a long time that it would surprise, and then I went against my own better judgment, but I’m quite happy.


Best Foreign Language Film:
How I predicted:
1.      Amour-Austria
2.      The Intouchables-France
3.      A Royal Affair-Denmark
4.      No-Chile
5.      Beyond the Hills-Romania

How they voted:
1.      Amour-Austria
2.      Kon-Tiki-Norway
3.      No-Chile
4.      A Royal Affair-Denmark
5.      War Witch-Canada

Result: 3/5

Thoughts: 60% ain’t bad in a category like this. Amour was a lock, but I’m immensely surprised not to see the crowd-pleaser The Intouchables here, but I can’t dwell on it too much. Also, I thought the Academy would’ve learned its lesson after snubbing Mungiu’s last film 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, but they still snubbed Beyond the Hills. Oh well. This is Austria’s 4th nomination, Norway’s 5th, Chile’s 1st, Denmark’s 9th, and Canada’s 7th.


Best Documentary Feature:
How I predicted:
1.      Bully
2.      The Invisible War
3.      This Is Not a Film
4.      How to Survive a Plague
5.      The Imposter

How they nominated:
1.      5 Broken Cameras
2.      The Gatekeepers
3.      How to Survive a Plague
4.      The Invisible Man
5.      Searching for Sugar Man

Result: 2/5

Thoughts:
I hate these categories. They’re so damn unpredictable. The five I predicted, plus Sugar Man, were concensus best of the year, so naturally I get 2 correct.


Best Production Design (formerly Art Direction):
How I predicted:
1.      Les Misérables
2.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3.      Anna Karenina
4.      Lincoln
5.      Django Unchained

How they nominated:
1.      Anna Karenina
2.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3.      Les Misérables
4.      Life of Pi
5.      Lincoln

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
No surprises here. I was just hoping for Django.


Best Cinematography:
How I predicted
1.      The Master
2.      Life of Pi
3.      Lincoln
4.      Les Misérables
5.      Beasts of the Southern Wild

How they nominated:
1.      Anna Karenina
2.      Django Unchained
3.      Life of Pi
4.      Lincoln
5.      Skyfall

Result: 2/5

Thoughts:
There is a god! Skyfall wholly deserved this nomination and I just didn’t think it would ever happen. I’m devastated that Master and Beasts didn’t receive the nominations they so richly deserved, however. You can chalk up Deakins for another loss, though.


Best Costume Design:
How I predicted:
1.      Anna Karenina
2.      Les Misérables
3.      Lincoln
4.      Django Unchained
5.      Cloud Atlas

How they nominated:
1.      Anna Karenina
2.      Les Misérables
3.      Lincoln
4.      Mirror Mirror
5.      Snow White and the Huntsman

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
Seriously!?!?!? Two crappy fantasy movies. At least give me Cloud Atlas.


Best Editing:
How I predicted:
1.      Argo
2.      Zero Dark Thirty
3.      Lincoln
4.      Les Misérables
5.      Life of Pi

How they nominated:
1.      Argo
2.      Life of Pi
3.      Lincoln
4.      Silver Linings Playbook
5.      Zero Dark Thirty

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
They finally succeed and get Argo on where it deserves.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
How I predicted:
1.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2.      Lincoln
3.      Les Misérables

How they voted:
1.      Hitchcock
2.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3.      Les Misérables

Result: 2/3

Thoughts:
I guess they thought Anthony Hopkins looked more like Alfred Hitchcock than did Daniel Day-Lewis like Abraham Lincoln. Huh! Amateur hour much?


Best Original Score:
How I predicted:
1.      Lincoln-John Williams
2.      Anna Karenina-Dario Marianelli
3.      Life of Pi-Mychael Danna
4.      The Master-Jonny Greenwood
5.      Beasts of the Southern Wild-Benh Zeitlin and Dan Romer

How they nominated:
1.      Anna Karenina-Dario Marianelli
2.      Argo-Alexandre Desplat
3.      Life of Pi-Mychael Hanna
4.      Lincoln-John Williams
5.      Skyfall-Thomas Newman

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
I’m very disappointed they didn’t get on the wholly deserving Beasts and that Jonny Greenwood was snubbed…again, but I’m immensely happy that Thomas Newman’s fantastic work on Skyfall was recognized. This is, I believe, John Williams’ 42nd nomination for Original Score and his 47th nomination overall. He has 7 wins already. Thomas Newman is also the most nominated living person to never win an Oscar for Original Score with 10 nominations. He’s also the second-most nominated person ever in the category without a win, behind 14-time nominees Alex North. Desplat has been nominated 5 times now, Marianelli 3 times, and this is Danna’s first.


Best Original Song:
How I predicted:
1.      Suddenly-Les Misérables
2.      Skyfall-Skyfall
3.      Learn Me Right-Brave
4.      Still Alive-Paul Williams: Still Alive
5.      Touch the Sky-Brave

How they nominated:
1.      Before My Time-Chasing Ice
2.      Everybody Needs a Best Friend-Ted
3.      Pi’s Lullaby-Life of Pi
4.      Skyfall-Skyfall
5.      Suddenly-Les Misérables

Result: 2/5

Thoughts:
Even after the rule change, it’s still a dreadful category to try to predict. The two locks got on, so that’s good, but that’s about it. The song from Ted is also a pleasant surprise.


Best Sound Editing:
How I predicted:
1.      The Dark Knight Rises
2.      The Avengers
3.      Skyfall
4.      Zero Dark Thirty
5.      Life of Pi

How they nominated:
1.      Argo
2.      Django Unchained
3.      Life of Pi
4.      Skyfall
5.      Zero Dark Thirty

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
No idea.


Best Sound Mixing (formerly Best Sound):
How I predicted:
1.      The Avengers
2.      Zero Dark Thirty
3.      Argo
4.      Les Misérables
5.      Skyfall

How they nominated:
1.      Argo
2.      Les Miséralbes
3.      Life of Pi
4.      Lincoln
5.      Skyfall

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
No idea


Best Visual Effects:
How I predicted:
1.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2.      Life of Pi
3.      Cloud Atlas
4.      The Avengers
5.      Prometheus

How they nominated:
1.      The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2.      Life of Pi
3.      The Avengers
4.      Prometheus
5.      Snow White and the Huntsman

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
Snow White and the Huntsman?!?!? Kill me now.


Best Animated Short:
How I predicted:
1.      Paperman
2.      Adam and Dog
3.      Maggie Simpson and the Longest Daycare
4.      The Eagleman Stag
5.      Dripped

How they nominated:
1.      Adam and Dog
2.      Fresh Guacamole
3.      Head over Heels
4.      Maggie Simpson and the Longest Daycare
5.      Paperman

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
I don’t give a rat’s ass.


Best Documentary Short:
How I predicted:
1.      Education of Mohammad Hussein
2.      Open Heart
3.      Mondays at Racine
4.      Inocente
5.      Redemption

How they nominated:
1.      Inocente
2.      Kings Point
3.      Mondays at Racine
4.      Open Heart
5.      Redemption

Result: 4/5

Thoughts:
Does anybody truthfully care.


Best Live Action Short:
How I predicted:
1.      Curfew
2.      Death of a Shadow
3.      when you find me
4.      9meter
5.      Asad

How they nominated:
1.      Asad
2.      Buzkashi Boys
3.      Curfew
4.      Death of a Shadow
5.      Henry

Result: 3/5

Thoughts:
Nobody gives a crap.


Final Results: 84/122, or 68.8%, which seems pretty good to me, though I have no way of comparing that to anybody else's predictions.


My Predicted Nominees (not including shorts):
12 Nominations:
Lincoln

11 Nominations:
Les Misérables

7 Nominations:
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

6 Nominations:
Argo

5 Nominations:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook

4 Nominations:
Amour

3 Nominations:
Anna Karenina
The Avengers
Brave
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Skyfall

2 Nominations:
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions

1 Nomination:
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Beyond the Hills
Bully
The Dark Knight Rises
Flight
Frankenweenie
How to Survive a Plague
The Imposter
The Intouchables
The Invisible War
No
ParaNorman
Paul Williams: Still Alive
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Prometheus
Rise of the Guardians
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone
This Is Not a Film
Wreck-It Ralph

Actual Nominations (not including shorts):
12 Nominations:
Lincoln

11 Nominations:
Life of Pi

8 Nominations:
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook

7 Nominations:
Argo

5 Nominations:
Amour
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

4 Nominations:
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild

3 Nominations:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Master

2 Nominations:
Flight
Snow White and the Huntsman

1 Nomination:
The Avengers
Brave
Chasing Ice
5 Broken Cameras
Frankenweenie
The Gatekeepers
Hitchcock
How to Survive a Plague
The Impossible
The Invisible War
Kon-Tiki
Moonrise Kingdom
No
ParaNorman
Prometheus
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
A Royal Affair
Searching for Sugar Man
The Sessions
Ted
War Witch
Wreck-It Ralph

No comments:

Post a Comment